Yet more good news from Savernake Forest. We have still lost only a single hibernating larva to (probable bird) predation all winter. I checked the surviving 11 yesterday: all present and correct, unmoved. This is by far the best mid-Feb survival rate there in 16 years... Finger's crossed...
I am still hardly recording any titmice there (and then mostly in the Leigh Hill area, close to cottage gardens, where they're being fed... Maybe they're all wintering in gardens in Marlborough!).
The weather's set to change this week, with much milder conditions setting in (after six weeks in which temperatures have stayed within the normal mid-winter range band).
This means that many larvae will wake up. Those not settled by buds are likely to migrate up to buds, and settle there, in waiting (and the buds haven't moved yet). They are vulnerable when they move...
Here's one in silhouette from yesterday. This one's likely to stay put -
But this one, in a sunny spot on a branch scar, is likely to migrate half a metre or so up to a leaf bud -
That's the good news. The bad news is that I've lost four of the six larvae I've been following locally, in the upper Frome valley west of Cirencester (near Daneway Banks on the butterflying map). All four were on buds.
The two hibernating a metre or more from the buds are still extant (one in a branch fork, one on a twig scar). I suspect a rogue resident bird (not a Great Tit, none there) or, more likely, a regular visiting flock of Long-tailed Tits. These larvae will be vulnerable when they move up to leaf buds, so I'm going to put some chicken netting around them...
