Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Weather Collapses!

At the crucial time in the Purple calendar, the weather collapses... 

The shorter time iris spends pupating and in the pupal period, the more fly; the longer, the fewer. They get stuck at red traffic lights, or worse, a full motorway closure...

At the moment, it is likely that a number of larvae have pupated in the warmer, 'earlier' South East - maybe around 20-25%. A similar number may be pupating. The rest are stuck as full-grown larvae. 

Why the panic? We know that pupae and pupating larvae are heavily predated, by creatures as yet unknown (I am helping a student who is working on this right now...).

The fate of the 2025 Purple Emperor season hangs in the balance, waiting for the weather to improve (but yes, we did need some rain!)...

The worry is that 2025 is going to mirror 1990, when after a wonderful spring the jet stream jumped south at the start of June, for six weeks, before the sun returned - too late for iris, which had a shocker.

Here's my single captive larva, called 'Pet Rescue' as she (it is a she, no male gonad sack and smaller horns) was rescued from a storm-blown sallow back in November. She wants to pupate. Photo taken at night under UV torchlight - 



 

Monday, May 19, 2025

Prospects for the 2025 Purple Emperor Season

A very early start to the 2025 Emperor season is likely - but there's a huge BUT coming up...

At this range, it is possible that 2025 will break the all-time record for the earliest definite Purple Emperor (10th June 1893). The current modern record is 11th June 2017 & 2019. 

Many other butterflies are emerging unprecedentedly early this year.

But here's the BUT, and it's massive: the fine spring weather is forecast to break down over the weekend of May 24th-25th, just when the bulk of this generation of Emperor caterpillars will be pupating. Ouch!

They can get stuck pupating for ages...

and, the longer Emperors spend pupating, or as pupae, the fewer of them make it to adulthood (due to high levels of predation: a student is about to start a thesis on this, I'm helping her).

So, the fate of the 2025 Emperor season hangs in the balance. How long will the (much needed) rainy spell last, and when will the fine weather return? 

Perhaps 2025 will track 1990, when a sublime spring broke into a wet June and early July, before the sun returned - but too late for the Emperor, who only emerged in low numbers.

Now, it is likely that some larvae have already pupated in the warm South East, though a lengthy spell of relatively cool nights will have slowed many other larvae right down.

Larvae I've been following got stuck changing to the final instar, then fed up rapidly to reach Late L5 stage (= ready for pupation). They may get stuck again.

Because of the cool night factor and the forthcoming weather breakdown, I'm forecasting that the first male of 2025 will be seen at 2.30pm on Wed June 11th. (Last year I was out by 22 hours).

However, it may be earlier, and we should be on Purple Alert during the weekend of June 7th-8th, possibly earlier. Note that iris now tends to appear before the White Admiral and S-w Fritillary... 

We have the chance to smash the all-time record... Carpe Diem!

WATCH THIS SPACE, I will update regularly.  

If the weather is clement, adult number could be very high. Fingers crossed...



Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Fifty Years On, The 1975 Emperor Season


  Fifty years ago, Emperoring was very different. The Purple Emperor was considered a rare butterfly, confined to a few southern oakwoods. People wanted to catch pristine males, and pin them; or net gravid females, for breeding (and subsequent pinning and/or releasing). Nobody photographed butterflies then, at least not in the wild – the technology wasn’t there. No one counted butterflies; few studied their ecology, or even kept diaries. 

  An article by Alison Ross in The Times (Aug 23rd 1975) describes how ‘teams of nature conservationists patrolled the woods known to collectors … and also talked to Forestry Commission officials … to explain the need for the preservation of sallows.’ This drama centred on Bernwood Forest on the Bucks-Oxon border but was replicated elsewhere, particularly in Alice Holt Forest, Hants, and Chiddingfold Forest, Surrey-Sussex. The real threat, of course, was the felling of sallows, which was standard forestry practice.

  This was a truly great butterfly year, which prepared the way for the Long hot Summer of 1976. But the roots of 1976’s greatness lie deeper: the summer of 1974 had been good, and saw butterfly populations rise; they rose further in 1975, so that 1976 was the third good butterfly year on the trot.

  The winter of ‘74-75 was mild. It was followed by a cool, late spring with snowfalls down south in late March and early April, a severe late frost at the end of May, and a snowfall in the London area on June 2nd (Snow Stopped Play in Derby v Lancs at Buxton that day). 

  The great summer of 1975 then began in earnest: ‘Change in the weather, is so extreme’, so croaked Bob Dylan in the album of the summer, Blood on the Tracks. May and June were warm and sunny.  

  The White-letter Hairstreak stormed Butterfly of the Year, a considerable achievement as 1975 was one of the best Purple Emperor years on record, but White-letters were everywhere. Alison Ross describes how they ‘fluttered over the dying wych elms in profusion.’ My diary for July 10th recalls the antics of some 50 White-letters active over a nondescript patch of English Elms in a roadside scrub thicket – but any elms revealed similar profusions. Sadly, Dutch Elm Disease became rampant that summer. 

  Despite the cold, late spring, the Purple Emperor season began at the start of July. I saw my first in Straits Inclosure, Alice Holt Forest, on July 5th; then saw at least half a dozen fresh males in Southwater Woods (north of Knepp) on the following day (having seen none there on July 1st). This is an early start date for that era, and is remarkable as it happened after such a late spring. 

  Clearly, the insect had romped through the 4th and 5th larval instars, and the pupation / pupal period, during a fine May and a very good June – and it needs to romp through the vulnerable pupation & pupal period if adult numbers are to be high.

  The 1975 Purple Emperor season started and ended in hot weather, but the bulk of the flight season was dominated by weak areas of low pressure, which brought spells of cloud, patchy (light) rain and drizzle, and Moderate or even Fresh south-westerly winds. 

  But Emperors erupted whenever the sun came out. Crucially, many male territories held more than one occupant, which meant they were fully active – sparring against each other. I was seeing 12-15 apparent individuals a day, most of them on leeward, east-facing wood edges. Many of my sightings were of sparring pairs, not singletons. 

  On July 26th a big anticyclone developed, and on that very day the Long Hot Summer of 1976 was born. Emperor males quickly burnt out in the heat, leaving a few worn females to stagger into early August. I saw my last of the year on August 2nd, a female. Then they were gone. What do you do when the party’s over? 

The weather got better and better, hotter and drier, leading into a quintessential autumn that brought a strong third brood of the Wall Brown, and Pink Floyd's classic album Wish You Were Here.

 

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Early Season Likely

Purple Emperor larvae in the cool climes of Wilts & Glos are entering their final instar (L5). That's early... It also means that there must be mid-L5 larvae in the warmer, sunnier southeast, perhaps even some late L5 larvae there...

Here's Henry the Navigator, from Savernake Forest yesterday, he's early L5 -


Larvae are getting heavy, which means the leaves they're on hang perpendicularly -


Soon, very soon, 5th instar (L5) larvae will start stripping sprays, like hawkmoth and Puss Moth larvae. Look out for this distinctive feeding on alluring sallows...

Given that the weather outlook (and beyond a week's range forecasts are of Low Confidence), it looks very much as though an EARLY FLIGHT SEASON IS LIKELY. 

At this range, it looks as though males will be appearing in the warmer, earlier parts of the Purple Empire (Sussex, Surrey, Kent) around the weekend of June 7th-8th.  

I'm not making an official prediction at this stage - give me another week.  

Adult numbers could be very good this year, but much depends on the weather during the critical pupation and pupal periods.

Watch this space, closely...


 *Coming soon, the 1975 Purple Emperor season, 50 years on.