Emperor larvae seem to be surviving their five month long winter hibernation period relatively well.
Over the weekend, three of us checked 56 hibernating larvae in Savernake Forest, finding 47. Losing just nine out of 56 during the January and early February period isn't too bad - in fact, it's almost as good as it gets...
At this stage, it looks as though winter predation is only going to be in the Modest bracket, and not High. However, February and early March is the main period for losses. So, fingers crossed...
Some larvae, like the one above, are starting to green up. Now, that's early, very early, but this has so far been a very mild winter. Also, two had moved, up to buds.
If (underlined and italicised) winter losses remain in the Modest bracket and if (ditto) the weather is fine during the crucial pupation and pupal periods, 2026 could (ditto) see a sizeable Purple Emperor emergence - the two key stage periods of loss which seem to determine adult numbers are 1) winter and 2) pupation / pupal time (+ flight season weather, of course).
Watch this space. We're not there yet, but we seem to be heading there...
All things are for the best with this the best of all possible butterflies.
