2022 Early News

2022 could be an annus mirabilis for the Purple Emperor, though much needs to go right and an awful lot mustn't go wrong...

Last year saw a surprisingly good egg lay and a goodly number of larvae entered hibernation. That's a big plus.

To date, winter losses have been low at some monitored sites (only 25% have been predated to date in my local woods, and 33% at another monitored site east of Swindon), though Ben Greenaway has recorded 60% losses so far (mid-Feb) in West Sussex and I've recorded similar losses in the Great Tit haven that is Savernake Forest, my main study site. The mid-February to early March period sees the highest mortality during hibernation.

Another period of high loss seems to be the pupal period, though we are only just starting to study this in the wild. It seems that the longer this butterfly spends in the pupal stage the fewer Emperors we see on the wing.  

This year we have The Queen's Platinum Jubilee in early June, when many larvae should be pupating. Please note that the track record of the Great British Weather during Royal Jubilees is nothing short of appalling - c/f the heavy cold rains of June 2012 and 1977.  Even Queen Victoria's Diamond Jubilee in 1887 was ruined by the weather - an extreme heatwave ended in an apocalyptic heatwave which caused considerable crop damage...

Watch this space. Whatever will be will be, but it will be interesting...

Autumn & Early Winter News

Apologies for the lack of posts but I've acquired a new laptop and cannot (yet) post to the Empire on it...  This post is via the old, wobbly laptop...

The good news is that larvae are quite numerous this autumn / early winter, despite a low adult emergence and much poor flight season weather. This may be because sallow foliage was in good condition for the egg-laying females in July and for L1 larvae in August, due to the late spring and late leafing (it's complex, scientifically difficult, and covered in my book).

Larvae entered hibernation (or strictly, diapause) late, due to the mild November. The mild first three weeks of November also meant that many larvae wandered far and wide before entering diapause - so, they're hard to locate. This mildness also meant that larvae were still wandering around on the last day of November and first day of December - these are new record dates for active larvae.

At present, I am following at least 14 larvae in / around Savernake Forest. These are named after philosophers in Monty Python's Australian Philosophers Song.  I have also got another bunch on philosophers, non-Pythonesque and mainly Existentialist, near Lambourn and, joy of joys, Boris and his Cabinet in hibernation in my local wood (a new, radical and utterly wonderful colonisation). I've got a couple more elsewhere locally too. So, a good sample size to follow.

Better, Ben Greenaway is following an even larger number in West Sussex. 

So, we'll get a good measurement of winter survival and predation rates. Tit populations are down, due to a poor breeding season in the cold and wet spring, and when tits are down Emperors go up. Yay!

At this stage, the prospects for the 2022 season are genuinely good, but we don't need a mild, wet winter and an early spring (both of which lead to high larval mortality) and we really don't need the wet weather associated with Royal Jubilees next June (it's The Queen's Platinum Jubilee...).

Here's this winter's 'Priti', of the unusual olive-yellow colour form -

 And here's 'Jacques Derrida' -

The bad news is that the Dangle Leaf Season kicked off late, due to the mild autumn, and ended at most sites very early, due to Storm Arwen. Here's one of the few dangles I managed to find before Arwen blew them all away - 

You can follow these guys, and more, on Twitter at @MatthewOates76.

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Some disturbingly large Iris specimens have been appearing. Speculation  around horizontal gene transfer with bison has remained unproven as the dangerous species has so far eluded capture and neither is pupae nor eggs have yet been found. Against the trend of global warming the evolutionary variation seems to be heading south. First sightings in Ushaw Historic gardens then in Darlington and Bishop Aukland then Redcar. Attempts to mate it with standard size females have failed its genital optics appear to lack adequate precision. This being a new speciation  a name for the new species is being mooted  `purple galactic ethnarch` or `purple chief executive of the  universe` . Suggestions welcome.

2021Egg Lay

  Rejoice and be of good cheer! Despite a generally low adult emergence and a lot of grotty flight season weather, the Purple Emperor has managed to lay a goodly number of eggs, and larvae are in reasonable numbers this autumn. 

  I haven't quite finished my annual standardised count of autumn larvae in Savernake Forest, but it is already clear that 2021 will be the fifth best year in a 13 year sequence there.  Here's the data - 

2009 = 141        2014 =  24        2019 =  16

2010 =  59         2015 =  20        2020 =  12

2011 =  21         2016 =  17        2021 = E40* 

2012 = 22          2017 =  18

2013 = 190        2018 =  76

* E = estimate

Numbers seem relatively high elsewhere, though larvae are patchy. Also, tits are down - they had a rotten breeding season due to the cold April and wet May. 

All this suggests that 2022 could be a good Emperor year - only we need a cold winter, a non-early spring, and good weather during the pupal period (the worry here is that we are due a Platinum Jubilee in June, and the track record of weather during Royal Jubilees is  nothing short of appalling...).  

And larvae are running late. This year I found a 2nd instar larva at the start of October, in Glos, by far the latest record of the L2 stage. This is not a concern; they'll catch up, as sallow foliage is in good condition this autumn (though Sallow Mildew is prolific on overhung sallows).   

 East Midlands distribution, correction

It was remiss of me not to mention Richard Jeffery, the recorder for Leicestershire and Rutland, who contributed the Leicestershire and Rutland sightings to the map.

 East Midlands distribution 2021

This distribution map, generated by Ken Orpe with input from Stephen Mathers, shows that iris continues to spread northwards, with an increased number of 2km squares compared with 2020. Several observers recorded iris in Sherwood forest; on July 16th, four were seen within a small area of the forest, this being the most seen there in a day. As yet, there are no records from Derbyshire. Lincolnshire is not included here.